28 DAYS TO GO

28 DAYS TO GO
Written by admin
Saturday, 13 November 2010 06:58

While the impasse between the Government of Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is currently centered on the issues of "comfort levels", "proper" channels, facilitator and facilitation architecture, there is a possibility that this negotiation deadlock, if prolonged,will soon affect the situation on the ground and once this happens, the situation on the ground (not the comfort levels of negotiators ) will determine the tempo and direction of the political negotiations. From experience, once the situation on the ground unravels and hostilities begin, political negotiations will have to take a back seat.

One of the stabilizing factors that has kept the "peace" despite the lack of significant movement in the political negotiations between the GPH and the MILF is the presence of a multinational International Monitoring Team (IMT) in Mindanao. At present, the IMT, which was deployed on February 28 this year, is composed of "39 members, 20 from Malaysia, 15 from Brunei, three from Libya and one from Japan who is focusing on development aspects."
Thus, in IMT records only 3 armed skirmishes between AFP and MILF in 2010, MindaNews reports that:

"The Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) has recorded only three armed skirmishes between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) from January to October this year, a significant drop from 110 for the same period in 2009.

A total of 116 armed skirmishes were recorded from January to December 2009, and 222 from March to December 2008. In 2008, the highest recorded incidence was 77 in August, the month the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order barring the government peace panel from signing on August 5 that year, the already initialed Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD)."

Clearly, the IMT has served both as a deterrent to hostilities and a symbol that the peace process is alive and remains to be a viable alternative to war. In fact, for most people in the conflict-affected area and even to the foot soldiers of the GPH and the MILF, the IMT is the most visible face of the peace process. The IMT as a symbol contributes an "intangible" - a sense that things are moving and that war is not imminent.

If the impasse between the GPH and the MILF continues and no new agreement on the IMT happens, the IMT will have to go and leave Mindanao by December 8, 2010. Yes, the red date is December 8, 2010. Based on the Terms of Reference of the International Monitoring Team dated December 9, 2009, the term of the mandate of the IMT is only for 12 months:

"8. DURATION - The term of the mandate of the IMT shall be 12 months except Civilian Protection Component (CPC) which shall remain in place and continue to perform its function should the IMT cease to operate. Extension of the term of the mandate may be considered on a year-to-year basis upon the request by both GRP and MILF."

In order for the IMT to continue fulfilling its duties of monitoring the interim agreements on ceasefire, humanitarian, development and rehabilitation aspects, its mandate must be renewed by the parties. If no new agreement on the term of the IMT happens before December 8, 2010 then the IMT has to leave. Once the IMT leaves, what remains will be the Civilian Protection Component which is composed of the Brussels-based Nonviolent Peaceforce, MinHRAC, Mindanao Peoples Caucus and MOGOP.

(Thw Author - Atty Bong Montessa served in the GRP-MILF Peace Talks in various capacities.Today is November 10. 28 days to go to.[ Also published at: http://bongmontesa.wordpress.com] and [kusogmindanaw] 28 days to go [Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:54 AM – Today is November 13. 28 days to go MEANS – 25 DAYS LEFT….)