Are we heading towards another martial law?

MALAYBALAY CITY (MindaNews/09 July) -- It’s a scary scenario to just even think about. But suspicions that the recent rash of bombings in select areas of Mindanao is part of a ploy to place the country under martial law could not be simply ignored. Some groups tend to adopt the military line that the Jemaah Islamiya or the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was behind the blasts in retaliation for the scrapping of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain. Such suspicions could be true. Yet, there are also developments in the national political situation that would bolster allegations the Palace – or a close-knit faction loyal to it – is into something sinister.

At least two things should be considered in identifying the possible culprits – motives and capability. The MILF has both. But so do the individuals and groups who stand to benefit from authoritarian rule. If the latter suspects are the real perpetrators, it’s like hitting the proverbial two birds with a single stone. The stage would be set for the declaration of martial rule on top of deepening the animosities between Muslims and Christians who would interpret these events along religious lines.
Circumspection and wariness over sweeping statements coming from government and military sources are necessary in a situation where the real motives and interests have remained hazy. Remember the lessons of the 2003 Davao City bombings and other incidents where the suspects turned out to be fall guys. This is not to totally discount possible MILF or JI involvement but to caution the public against rushing into conclusions even in the absence of conclusive proof as to the identity of the perpetrators. Treating the bombings as simply blackmail by the rebels to force the Philippine government to return to the negotiating table closes the door to other plausible motives.

It is also worth looking into the manner with which the bombings were carried out. Here the JI angle seems inconsistent with the group’s penchant for maximum impact, if the Bali bombing were to serve as basis. Of course, the military had a ready explanation even before any investigation was done – the bombers were neophytes on a test mission.

Was it the MILF then? As pointed out earlier, the possibility is there. But the elements pointing to such likelihood look too well orchestrated and dwelt much on symbolisms that would stoke the fire of religious enmity, if any. For one, the bomb used in Cotabato City was planted in a store selling lechon (roasted pig) just across the Immaculate Conception cathedral. A similar scene would be repeated in Jolo, Sulu two days after, near the Mount Carmel church. Lechon. Church. The conspirators could not have thought of more striking imageries.

These symbolic subtleties however have only cast doubts on the plausibility of rebel or terrorist involvement in the blasts bolstering suspicions that a sector in the armed forces could be cooking up scenarios to justify a declaration of a state of emergency if not martial law. In this light, Mrs. Arroyo and those who would benefit from her prolonged stay in power are all suspects. With the shameless Charter change initiative facing imminent defeat and with time running out, the only option left is a bloody shortcut – military solution to a political objective.

This is not paranoia but a call for vigilance and critical evaluation of events which threaten to further erode whatever is left of our democratic pretensions. Learn from the past. Remember the events that led to Proclamation 1081. (MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. H. Marcos C. Mordeno is one of the editors at MindaNews.)